Understanding of probability is key in making business decisions. The following questions begin to test your understanding of the different forms of probability and the data on which probabilistic decision making is based.

Select any one of the following starter bullet point sections. Review the important themes within the sub questions of each bullet point. The sub questions are designed to get you thinking about some of the important issues. 

Your response should provide a succinct synthesis of the key themes in a way that articulates a clear point, position, or conclusion supported by research. Select a different bullet point section than what your classmates have already posted so that we can engage several discussions on relevant topics. If all of the bullet points have been addressed, then you may begin to re-use the bullet points with the expectation that varied responses continue.

You are a risk manager in a manufacturing company. One of your key responsibilities is securing of property insurance coverage to provide protection against damage caused by “acts of God,” such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, etc. You begin the process with exposure due diligence, which is focused on estimating the chances of a single “act of God” occurring in the course of the upcoming year, as well as the chances of two or more “acts of God” materializing (also in the course of the next year).

Determine where you might be able to find valid data for this type of analysis.
Justify the use of the concept of conditional probability in the context of your task—more specifically, discuss how you would use conditional probability in your exposure due diligence efforts. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.

You are a marketing manager for a company that makes ready-to-eat breakfast cereals. Your company recently initiated a loyalty program for consumers, which resulted in a large purchaser database. The brand managers are eager to examine the available data, which they can use to design more effective promotional programs. Your first step is to conduct an exploratory baseline analysis, the goal of which is to describe the buyer base and estimate basic statistical descriptors of the buyer base. You are particularly interested in the size of individual purchases, as well as the frequency of repurchases.

Evaluate what discrete data distribution the frequency of repurchases data would be likely to follow.
Explain why the other discrete data distributions are not appropriate for this data. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.

You are a marketing manager for a manufacturer of nonperishable products sold in grocery stores. In this role, you need to make various decisions about how much marketing/advertising support is needed by each product to maximize the profitability of the organization.

Assess how the effectiveness of individual marketing/advertising approaches would be determined.
Discuss how historical sales data, as well as promotional response data, can aid you in evaluating the effectiveness of the individual marketing/advertising approaches. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.

The final paragraph (three or four sentences) of your initial post should summarize the one or two key points that you are making in your initial response.
Submission Details:

Your posting should be the equivalent of 1 to 2 single-spaced pages (500–1000 words) in length.

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